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Europe Wind up, Solar down in early 2024

2024-01-17

Wind production soared across Europe at the start of 2024, reaching unprecedented levels in France, according to data from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. In contrast, solar production experienced a decline during the same period.

In the week of January 1, solar energy production witnessed a decrease in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market saw the largest drop at 33%, while the Italian market had the smallest decline at 7.7%. Notably, the Iberian Peninsula bucked the trend with a 4.0% increase, primarily driven by a remarkable 22% surge in the Portuguese market. On January 7, the Spanish market achieved a milestone by generating 80 GWh with solar energy, marking its highest production using this technology since the end of November the previous year. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's production forecasts indicate that solar energy is expected to increase in Germany, Italy, and Spain in the week of January 8.
 

In terms of wind energy production during the first week of 2024, most major European electricity markets witnessed increases compared to the previous week. Italy led with a remarkable 246% increase, while the Spanish market registered a significant rise of 157%. The French market experienced the smallest increase at 1.1%. Despite being the leading market in wind energy production, the German market recorded a 23% decrease compared to the last week of 2023. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's wind energy production forecasts suggest a drop in production with this technology across all analyzed markets in the week of January 8.

Electricity demand in major European markets increased during the week of January 1 compared to the previous week, as anticipated following the Christmas celebrations. The British market recorded the most substantial increase at 20%, while the Spanish market saw the smallest rise at 1.8%. Decreases in average temperatures in most analyzed markets during the first week of 2024 contributed to an increase in demand. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's demand forecasts indicate a continuation of this trend, with electricity demand expected to increase in all analyzed markets in the week of January 8.

In the week of January 1, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week, except for the IPEX market of Italy, which saw a 14% decrease, and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, with a 23% drop. The EPEX SPOT market of Germany registered the largest percentage price rise at 222%. Weekly averages were generally below €85/MWh in almost all analyzed European electricity markets, except for the Italian market, which reached the highest average at €100.01/MWh. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting's price forecasts suggest that prices might continue to rise in European electricity markets in the second week of January, driven by the recovery in demand and a general decline in wind energy production.